Aurora Borealis (Last update: 2021-12-06 00:53:30) Refresh in - sec.
Zorza polarna / Northern Lights / Nordlichter - BEST Aurora Borealis Live Forecast - www.rawjet.com/?aurora-forecast
Viewed 2266 times
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 06-Dec 08 2021

Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 3 3 1
06-09UT 2 3 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 1 2
21-00UT 2 2 2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021

Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 05 2021 0719 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021

Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
R1-R2 10% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists on 06
Dec due to the flare potential of an active region just past the SW
limb.
Random Galleries