:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA

Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021 is 3 (below NOAA

Scale levels).



NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 06-Dec 08 2021



            Dec 06     Dec 07     Dec 08

00-03UT        2          2          2     

03-06UT        3          3          1     

06-09UT        2          3          1     

09-12UT        2          2          1     

12-15UT        1          1          1     

15-18UT        1          1          1     

18-21UT        2          1          2     

21-00UT        2          2          2     



Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No

significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was

below S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021



              Dec 06  Dec 07  Dec 08

S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%



Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm

production is forecast.



C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24

hours. The largest was at Dec 05 2021 0719 UTC.



Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 06-Dec 08 2021



              Dec 06        Dec 07        Dec 08

R1-R2           10%            1%            1%

R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%



Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists on 06

Dec due to the flare potential of an active region just past the SW

limb.