Aurora Borealis (Last update: 2021-10-23 17:53:23)
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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Oct 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2021 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2021

Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 2 1 2
06-09UT 1 1 3
09-12UT 1 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2021

Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2021

Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over 25-27 Oct.
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